Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: F9 3017 at 10:17 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–44%.

Safest bet that day F9 3017 SJU 10:17 → FLL 13:28 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest B6 1454 SJU 15:33 → FLL 18:15 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 3017 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 10:17	FLL 13:28	21%	7%	7.5%	83%
B6 2154 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 09:22	FLL 12:02	25%	8%	6.7%	73%
WN 3205 Southwest	SJU 14:22	FLL 17:15	28%	7%	1.4%	no record
B6 154 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 17:00	FLL 19:42	42%	15%	2.3%	54%
B6 1454 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 15:33	FLL 18:15	44%	14%	2.6%	70%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON