tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 2024 at 16:55, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2024 United Flight history → SJU 16:55 IAD 20:56 13% 4% 0.7% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 1h 13m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAD 14:26DL 2135 6h 56m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → SJU 12:54 → ATL 16:43DL 1930 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → IAD 20:23DL 1309 7h 29m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:21 → DTW 19:03DL 1913 2h 35m Detroit DTW 21:38 → IAD 23:13DL 3988 · flown by SkyWest 8h 52m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644 1h 10m Houston IAH 12:03 → IAD 16:14UA 3904 9h 14m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → SJU 14:55 → IAH 18:51UA 668 1h 19m Houston IAH 20:10 → IAD 00:02 +1UA 1968 9h 07m 93% 76%
FrontierDetails → SJU 09:29 → TPA 12:55F9 2215 3h 19m Tampa TPA 16:14 → IAD 18:59F9 2954 9h 30m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → SJU 15:56 → ORD 20:15UA 2088 1h 51m Chicago ORD 22:06 → IAD 00:47 +1UA 1922 8h 51m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → SJU 17:50 → ATL 21:49DL 1946 1h 04m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 6h 51m 88% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783 50m Charlotte CLT 20:29 → IAD 21:55AA 1954 6h 15m 64% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON