Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1644 United Flight history →	SJU 07:00	IAH 10:53	6%	3%	0.8%	96%
UA 668 United Flight history →	SJU 14:55	IAH 18:51	13%	5%	0.7%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind San Juan). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJU 12:54 → ATL 16:43DL 1930	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 18:53 → IAH 20:04DL 2327	8h 10m	100%	82%
United Details →	SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219	1h 55m Newark	EWR 07:05 → IAH 09:50UA 2438	9h 50m	92%	80%
Delta Details →	SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	7h 03m	96%	79%
United Details →	SJU 13:40 → DEN 18:15UA 1368	2h 13m Denver	DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419	11h 19m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	SJU 14:21 → DTW 19:03DL 1913	1h 22m Detroit	DTW 20:25 → IAH 22:24DL 1633	9h 03m	94%	79%
United Details →	SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024	1h 20m Dulles	IAD 22:16 → IAH 00:25 +1UA 1463	8h 30m	93%	78%
Frontier Details →	SJU 03:07 → MIA 06:06F9 3377	1h 47m Miami	MIA 07:53 → IAH 10:00F9 1067	7h 53m	90%	76%
United Details →	SJU 13:25 → EWR 17:39UA 1173	3h 26m Newark	EWR 21:05 → IAH 23:58UA 2425	11h 33m	96%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Frontier Details →	SJU 03:10 → MCO 06:10F9 1823	50m Orlando	MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:45F9 1417	6h 35m	70%	46%
JetBlue Details →	SJU 17:00 → FLL 19:42B6 154	1h 18m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 21:00 → IAH 23:02B6 2779	7h 02m	71%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON