tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Jacksonville on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 1h 01m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → JAX 13:25DL 3024 5h 55m 94% 80%
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644 1h 17m Houston IAH 12:10 → JAX 15:37UA 4048 · flown by Mesa 8h 37m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:20 → JFK 11:19DL 1854 2h 36m New York JFK 13:55 → JAX 16:44DL 1035 9h 24m 98% 77%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 05:01 → JFK 08:54B6 2904 3h 14m New York JFK 12:08 → JAX 14:38B6 477 9h 37m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → SJU 12:54 → ATL 16:43DL 1930 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 19:31 → JAX 20:48DL 2315 7h 54m 100% 68%
AmericanDetails → SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783 2h 16m Charlotte CLT 21:55 → JAX 23:20AA 3078 7h 40m 97% 68%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → JAX 22:15DL 2189 7h 33m 98% 68%
DeltaDetails → SJU 13:10 → JFK 17:19DL 1966 1h 56m New York JFK 19:15 → JAX 22:17DL 5123 · flown by Endeavor 9h 07m 96% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON