Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4962 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 4962 SJU 05:02 → MCO 08:11 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2134 SJU 18:44 → MCO 22:04 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4962 Southwest	SJU 05:02	MCO 08:11	5%	2%	4.6%	no record
WN 3859 Southwest	SJU 06:18	MCO 09:30	5%	2%	4.6%	no record
WN 3508 Southwest	SJU 07:46	MCO 10:55	7%	2%	4.7%	no record
F9 2981 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 06:51	MCO 10:20	11%	5%	6.8%	87%
WN 3861 Southwest	SJU 10:32	MCO 13:41	12%	3%	4.4%	no record
B6 234 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 05:00	MCO 08:19	13%	6%	5.0%	83%
F9 2867 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 10:38	MCO 14:00	15%	6%	6.6%	88%
B6 1134 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 08:29	MCO 11:47	16%	7%	4.8%	70%
WN 4960 Southwest	SJU 13:22	MCO 16:31	18%	5%	1.6%	no record
B6 1334 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 11:14	MCO 14:33	19%	8%	1.8%	73%
WN 2138 Southwest	SJU 19:57	MCO 23:01	21%	6%	1.2%	no record
F9 1823 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 03:10	MCO 06:10	21%	7%	14.1%	81%
F9 4725 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 21:46	MCO 01:09	22%	10%	3.5%	67%
WN 3211 Southwest	SJU 16:07	MCO 19:16	22%	6%	1.3%	no record
B6 934 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 14:48	MCO 18:10	26%	11%	1.9%	81%
F9 2249 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 20:12	MCO 22:48	28%	10%	3.5%	86%worse than usual
B6 2134 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 18:44	MCO 22:04	30%	13%	2.0%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON