Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3089 at 05:48 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 3089 SJU 05:48 → MIA 08:40 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 967 SJU 16:39 → MIA 19:31 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3089 American Flight history →	SJU 05:48	MIA 08:40	14%	4%	1.3%	97%worse than usual
F9 3377 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 03:07	MIA 06:07	19%	8%	1.8%	81%
AA 3033 American	SJU 10:16	MIA 13:07	20%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 1341 American Flight history →	SJU 11:52	MIA 14:39	22%	7%	1.0%	82%
F9 2283 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 21:21	MIA 00:06	28%	13%	1.8%	77%
AA 1734 American	SJU 14:58	MIA 17:50	32%	9%	0.9%	no record
AA 967 American Flight history →	SJU 16:39	MIA 19:31	34%	12%	1.0%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON