tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Dulles, leaving 16:55, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2088 United Flight history → SJU 15:56 ORD 20:15 25% 6% 0.6% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind San Juan). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SJU 14:55 → IAH 18:51UA 668 3h 17m Houston IAH 22:08 → ORD 00:45 +1UA 1752 10h 50m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219 2h 49m Newark EWR 07:59 → ORD 09:43UA 2488 9h 43m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644 2h 55m Houston IAH 13:48 → ORD 16:30UA 1299 10h 30m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → SJU 13:40 → DEN 18:15UA 1368 2h 04m Denver DEN 20:19 → ORD 23:41UA 377 11h 01m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024 1h 19m Dulles IAD 22:15 → ORD 23:13UA 421 7h 18m 93% 75%
AmericanDetails → SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783 2h 56m Charlotte CLT 22:35 → ORD 23:36AA 627 8h 56m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 13:13 → ORD 14:25DL 1477 7h 55m 98% 70%
AmericanDetails → SJU 16:39 → MIA 19:31AA 967 2h 29m Miami MIA 22:00 → ORD 00:25 +1AA 2634 8h 46m 91% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → SJU 17:00 → FLL 19:42B6 154 1h 23m Fort Lauderdale FLL 21:05 → ORD 23:44B6 863 7h 44m 73% 42%
AmericanDetails → SJU 15:35 → DFW 19:54AA 3159 1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:00 → ORD 23:39AA 2346 9h 04m 74% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON