tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Norfolk on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 14:42 → ORF 16:22DL 1101 8h 52m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:21 → DTW 19:03DL 1913 2h 37m Detroit DTW 21:40 → ORF 23:32DL 412 9h 11m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 22:32 → ORF 00:19 +1DL 2338 9h 37m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → SJU 13:10 → JFK 17:19DL 1966 3h 48m New York JFK 21:07 → ORF 22:32DL 5326 · flown by Endeavor 9h 22m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → SJU 12:54 → ATL 16:43DL 1930 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → ORF 21:42DL 2984 8h 48m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783 3h 21m Charlotte CLT 23:00 → ORF 00:18 +1AA 2674 8h 38m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → SJU 16:39 → MIA 19:31AA 967 1h 43m Miami MIA 21:14 → ORF 23:37AA 775 6h 58m 83% 60%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 15:33 → FLL 18:15B6 1454 2h 11m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:26 → ORF 22:51B6 1800 7h 18m 85% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON