Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: B6 1048 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day B6 1048 SJU 07:45 → PHL 11:46 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 1725 SJU 17:23 → PHL 21:37 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1048 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 07:45	PHL 11:46	12%	5%	0.8%	93%
AA 621 American	SJU 14:22	PHL 18:38	20%	7%	0.8%	no record
F9 2695 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 00:30	PHL 04:38	29%	11%	1.6%	73%
F9 1725 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 17:23	PHL 21:37	33%	11%	1.3%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON