Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Providence on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314	8h 59m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SJU 12:54 → ATL 16:43DL 1930	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 20:15 → PVD 22:46DL 2064	9h 52m	100%	78%
JetBlue Details →	SJU 08:29 → MCO 11:47B6 1134	2h 19m Orlando	MCO 14:06 → PVD 17:03B6 1075	8h 34m	96%	63%
JetBlue Details →	SJU 15:33 → FLL 18:15B6 1454	2h 20m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:35 → PVD 23:45B6 1196	8h 12m	88%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	SJU 17:00 → FLL 19:42B6 154	53m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:35 → PVD 23:45B6 1196	6h 45m	51%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON