Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, B6 936 at 14:20, with a 37% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 936 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 14:20	STT 14:57	37%	11%	0.8%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219	1h 50m Newark	EWR 07:00 → STT 11:07UA 1529	10h 07m	91%	72%
American Details →	SJU 05:48 → MIA 08:40AA 3089	1h 25m Miami	MIA 10:05 → STT 13:02AA 943	7h 14m	86%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON