Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 17–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day F9 2215 SJU 09:29 → TPA 12:56 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest WN 3190 SJU 13:02 → TPA 16:15 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 2215 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 09:29	TPA 12:56	17%	5%	2.2%	74%
B6 452 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 09:14	TPA 12:28	17%	6%	2.5%	97%worse than usual
WN 3190 Southwest	SJU 13:02	TPA 16:15	18%	4%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON