Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 08:30, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 2 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 08:30 → MSP 11:58DL 2916	2h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 14:18 → ANC 16:49DL 411	10h 19m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	3h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377	11h 50m	99%	82%
United Details →	SLC 14:33 → DEN 16:16UA 1662	2h 50m Denver	DEN 19:06 → ANC 22:50UA 280	10h 17m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921	3h 00m Seattle	SEA 17:35 → ANC 20:23DL 2367	9h 03m	98%	74%
Alaska Details →	SLC 06:14 → SEA 07:23AS 3344 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m Seattle	SEA 09:51 → ANC 12:49AS 1680	8h 35m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871	2h 47m Seattle	SEA 21:20 → ANC 23:58DL 936	8h 38m	96%	72%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → ANC 18:48DL 416	12h 38m	94%	72%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:50 → SEA 09:02DL 2874	1h 33m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922	7h 27m	95%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	51m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928	6h 50m	70%	52%
Alaska Details →	SLC 16:00 → SEA 17:16AS 734	59m Seattle	SEA 18:15 → ANC 20:32AS 1408	6h 32m	70%	46%
Alaska Details →	SLC 18:44 → SEA 20:00AS 665	55m Seattle	SEA 20:55 → ANC 23:40AS 711	6h 56m	60%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON