Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1744 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 1744 SLC 08:15 → BOI 09:29 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2111 SLC 17:41 → BOI 18:58 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1744 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:15	BOI 09:29	6%	2%	0.5%	90%
DL 4446 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 21:21	BOI 22:40	9%	4%	0.6%	88%
DL 2095 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:05	BOI 12:23	11%	3%	0.5%	83%
DL 2920 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:00	BOI 16:13	16%	5%	0.6%	86%
DL 2111 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:41	BOI 18:58	17%	5%	0.6%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON