Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 820 Delta Flight history →	SLC 10:29	DCA 16:35	14%	3%	0.4%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 00:06 → BOS 06:26DL 696	3h 37m Boston	BOS 10:03 → DCA 11:57DL 5592 · flown by Republic	9h 51m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:30 → MSP 11:58DL 2916	2h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	7h 39m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	2h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:58DL 2961	7h 58m	98%	87%
United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 36m Denver	DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789	7h 44m	99%	87%
United Details →	SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m San Francisco	SFO 08:20 → DCA 16:47UA 1678	8h 42m	95%	81%
Frontier Details →	SLC 11:51 → DEN 13:39F9 3982	2h 49m Denver	DEN 16:28 → DCA 21:59F9 690	8h 08m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	SLC 11:14 → MCO 17:38DL 1691	3h 14m Orlando	MCO 20:52 → DCA 23:22DL 2729	10h 08m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244	2h 08m Detroit	DTW 21:23 → DCA 23:03DL 2073	7h 13m	97%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SLC 13:35 → ORD 17:59AA 3258	58m Chicago	ORD 18:57 → DCA 22:10AA 1187	6h 35m	72%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON