Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3874 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3874 SLC 06:15 → DEN 07:44 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4252 SLC 16:19 → DEN 18:01 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3874 Southwest	SLC 06:15	DEN 07:44	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3873 Southwest	SLC 08:14	DEN 09:53	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 5683 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 05:15	DEN 06:54	4%	3%	0.5%	95%
UA 1232 United Flight history →	SLC 07:00	DEN 08:42	8%	3%	0.5%	95%
DL 1317 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:45	DEN 09:12	9%	2%	0.4%	95%
UA 4720 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 13:05	DEN 14:49	9%	3%	0.5%	92%
UA 5642 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 08:30	DEN 10:27	9%	3%	0.5%	81%
DL 1553 Delta Flight history →	SLC 10:15	DEN 11:47	10%	2%	0.4%	84%
OO 5199 SkyWest	SLC 09:15	DEN 10:46	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 2090 United	SLC 10:39	DEN 12:08	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 1586 Delta Flight history →	SLC 18:30	DEN 20:01	15%	4%	0.4%	71%
DL 8944 Delta	SLC 13:54	DEN 15:23	18%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 3339 Southwest	SLC 16:09	DEN 17:48	18%	5%	0.5%	no record
F9 3982 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 11:51	DEN 13:39	18%	4%	0.7%	78%
WN 711 Southwest	SLC 14:29	DEN 16:08	19%	4%	0.5%	no record
F9 3862 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 08:16	DEN 10:01	20%	4%	0.7%	81%
UA 1662 United Flight history →	SLC 14:33	DEN 16:16	22%	6%	0.5%	79%
UA 1955 United	SLC 17:54	DEN 19:38	24%	7%	0.5%	no record
DL 1623 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:31	DEN 16:58	24%	4%	0.4%	85%
F9 4252 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 16:19	DEN 18:01	28%	7%	0.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON