Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 26–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2038 SLC 17:40 → EWR 23:54 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 2109 SLC 11:41 → EWR 18:11 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2038 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:40	EWR 23:54	26%	8%	0.9%	88%worse than usual
DL 2033 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:20	EWR 17:41	33%	12%	0.8%	83%worse than usual
UA 2109 United	SLC 11:41	EWR 18:11	35%	14%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	46m Denver	DEN 07:40 → EWR 13:27UA 2640	6h 12m	91%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON