tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 4246 at 09:20, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4246 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SLC 09:20 GJT 10:33 6% 2% 0.5% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Junction on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest 2h 58m Denver DEN 13:25 → GJT 14:40UA 5488 · flown by SkyWest 6h 10m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232 2h 42m Denver DEN 11:24 → GJT 12:31UA 1714 5h 31m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214 2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:27 → GJT 12:50AA 3592 · flown by Envoy 7h 50m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → SLC 12:17 → PHX 13:02AA 6422 · flown by SkyWest 2h 59m Phoenix PHX 16:01 → GJT 18:37AA 6491 · flown by SkyWest 6h 20m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SLC 14:33 → DEN 16:16UA 1662 3h 09m Denver DEN 19:25 → GJT 20:34UA 431 6h 01m 96% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON