tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via SFO, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 43% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 316 Delta Flight history → SLC 11:45 HNL 14:19 17% 5% 0.8% 83%
AS 714 Alaska SLC 09:44 HNL 12:14 23% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 4 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest 2h 01m San Francisco SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175 9h 38m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SLC 15:40 → LAX 16:36DL 841 2h 01m Los Angeles LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443 9h 42m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232 3h 18m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 12h 13m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SLC 09:45 → LAX 10:44DL 1095 3h 11m Los Angeles LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465 10h 58m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → SLC 07:13 → PHX 07:57AA 6327 · flown by SkyWest 2h 48m Phoenix PHX 10:45 → HNL 14:38AA 693 11h 25m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → SLC 09:49 → SFO 11:13UA 5970 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m San Francisco SFO 14:15 → HNL 16:29UA 300 10h 40m 96% 74%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 12:40 → PDX 13:44AS 3430 · flown by SkyWest 3h 48m Portland PDX 17:32 → HNL 20:24AS 841 11h 44m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 3h 41m Seattle SEA 16:30 → HNL 19:36DL 419 12h 01m 98% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SLC 18:44 → SEA 20:00AS 665 46m Seattle SEA 20:46 → HNL 23:31AS 268 8h 47m 43% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON