Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1322 United Flight history →	SLC 09:44	IAD 15:47	10%	3%	0.6%	97%
DL 847 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:45	IAD 19:44	14%	4%	0.6%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	1h 06m Denver	DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26UA 1101	6h 11m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	2h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	7h 20m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289	3h 23m Detroit	DTW 14:47 → IAD 16:22DL 1787	8h 22m	100%	84%
United Details →	SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232	3h 44m Denver	DEN 12:26 → IAD 17:58UA 2853	8h 58m	99%	84%
United Details →	SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest	3h 26m Denver	DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347	8h 52m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → IAD 20:23DL 1309	8h 28m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 15:26 → IAD 17:14DL 1695	8h 14m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244	2h 23m Detroit	DTW 21:38 → IAD 23:13DL 3988 · flown by SkyWest	7h 23m	97%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON