Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1909 at 00:14 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 1909 SLC 00:14 → JFK 06:10 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 671 SLC 14:35 → JFK 21:25 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1909 Delta	SLC 00:14	JFK 06:10	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 697 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:10	JFK 23:47	19%	5%	0.6%	82%
DL 1792 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:59	JFK 16:47	19%	5%	0.6%	84%
B6 372 JetBlue Flight history →	SLC 00:03	JFK 06:29	21%	6%	0.9%	79%
DL 671 Delta Flight history →	SLC 14:35	JFK 21:25	24%	6%	0.7%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON