Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3880 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3880 SLC 06:04 → LAS 06:29 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 410 SLC 18:19 → LAS 18:54 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3880 Southwest	SLC 06:04	LAS 06:29	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1698 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:25	LAS 08:50	9%	2%	0.4%	94%
WN 3475 Southwest	SLC 11:29	LAS 12:04	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1659 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:35	LAS 12:01	21%	4%	0.4%	77%
F9 2575 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 13:47	LAS 14:21	21%	7%	1.0%	80%
DL 1662 Delta Flight history →	SLC 21:30	LAS 21:58	21%	8%	0.5%	80%
DL 1672 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:35	LAS 16:02	26%	7%	0.4%	76%
WN 410 Southwest	SLC 18:19	LAS 18:54	28%	12%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON