Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 5380 at 10:35 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day OO 5380 SLC 10:35 → LAX 11:59 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1161 SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5380 SkyWest	SLC 10:35	LAX 11:59	10%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 3202 Southwest	SLC 10:54	LAX 12:02	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 4129 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 12:11	LAX 13:24	15%	4%	0.8%	90%
DL 829 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:30	LAX 12:27	15%	4%	0.4%	88%
DL 1142 Delta Flight history →	SLC 21:05	LAX 22:10	16%	5%	0.4%	76%
DL 1087 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:53	LAX 08:50	17%	3%	0.4%	92%
DL 1095 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:45	LAX 10:44	18%	3%	0.4%	92%
DL 841 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:40	LAX 16:36	20%	5%	0.4%	81%
DL 1161 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:10	LAX 18:07	21%	5%	0.4%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON