Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 2515 at 13:40, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2515 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:40	MEM 17:40	15%	4%	0.5%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	4h 00m Denver	DEN 10:54 → MEM 14:18UA 2789	8h 03m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	2h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest	7h 15m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	SLC 09:45 → DTW 15:12DL 2236	2h 37m Detroit	DTW 17:49 → MEM 18:55DL 3049	8h 10m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 16:33 → MEM 16:56DL 1681	8h 56m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → MEM 18:16DL 2939	9h 06m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	SLC 11:00 → ATL 16:44DL 885	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 20:11 → MEM 20:39DL 3020	8h 39m	98%	78%
American Details →	SLC 07:01 → DFW 10:40AA 644	2h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:47 → MEM 14:26AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	6h 25m	95%	77%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 22:50 → MEM 23:12DL 2501	8h 37m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	49m Atlanta	ATL 20:11 → MEM 20:39DL 3020	6h 04m	71%	55%
United Details →	SLC 16:09 → ORD 20:21UA 1963	59m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21UA 2317	6h 12m	66%	49%
American Details →	SLC 16:44 → DFW 20:29AA 1456	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:25 → MEM 23:07AA 1758	5h 23m	63%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON