tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2040 Delta Flight history → SLC 23:00 MIA 05:40 14% 4% 0.5% 91%
AA 3282 American SLC 00:05 MIA 06:27 33% 5% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936 1h 10m Minneapolis MSP 18:42 → MIA 23:26DL 2187 7h 26m 90% 75%
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 2h 58m Denver DEN 09:52 → MIA 16:00UA 1418 8h 45m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289 3h 00m Detroit DTW 14:24 → MIA 17:34DL 2548 9h 34m 99% 71%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366 1h 03m Houston IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410 7h 02m 93% 71%
DeltaDetails → SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 9h 20m 98% 70%
AmericanDetails → SLC 12:17 → PHX 13:02AA 6422 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Phoenix PHX 15:59 → MIA 23:38AA 1222 9h 21m 98% 69%
UnitedDetails → SLC 13:05 → DEN 14:49UA 4720 · flown by SkyWest 1h 14m Denver DEN 16:03 → MIA 22:05UA 445 7h 00m 94% 68%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 17:48 → MIA 19:44DL 719 9h 34m 100% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SLC 07:53 → LAX 08:50DL 1087 50m Los Angeles LAX 09:40 → MIA 18:07DL 811 8h 14m 71% 51%
FrontierDetails → SLC 16:19 → DEN 18:01F9 4252 54m Denver DEN 18:55 → MIA 00:52 +1F9 1280 6h 33m 67% 48%
UnitedDetails → SLC 09:49 → SFO 11:13UA 5970 · flown by SkyWest 52m San Francisco SFO 12:05 → MIA 20:36UA 1458 8h 47m 69% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON