Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 4134 at 10:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 4134 SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 4517 SLC 17:14 → OAK 18:14 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4134 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 10:45	OAK 11:46	7%	3%	0.5%	93%
DL 3797 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 20:40	OAK 21:38	8%	3%	0.6%	95%
DL 3903 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 15:20	OAK 16:21	10%	3%	0.6%	91%
WN 4517 Southwest	SLC 17:14	OAK 18:14	17%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON