tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via SFO, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Kahului on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 623 Delta Flight history → SLC 11:30 OGG 14:08 22% 6% 0.8% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 4 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232 3h 18m Denver DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736 12h 05m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest 56m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → OGG 10:45UA 2010 8h 40m 92% 80%
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 2h 10m Seattle SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344 10h 21m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → SLC 09:49 → SFO 11:13UA 5970 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m San Francisco SFO 14:05 → OGG 16:36UA 2623 10h 47m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → SLC 07:13 → PHX 07:57AA 6327 · flown by SkyWest 3h 06m Phoenix PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645 11h 19m 98% 75%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 15:21 → SEA 16:14AS 734 2h 45m Seattle SEA 18:59 → OGG 22:07AS 202 10h 46m 99% 74%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 08:03 → SAN 09:09AS 3018 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m San Diego SAN 10:59 → OGG 13:42AS 232 9h 39m 98% 72%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 06:15 → SEA 07:23AS 3344 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Seattle SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19AS 929 11h 04m 99% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON