Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2883 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2883 SLC 06:14 → ORD 10:28 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 1873 SLC 16:54 → ORD 21:23 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2883 American Flight history →	SLC 06:14	ORD 10:28	13%	5%	0.7%	85%
DL 2247 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:50	ORD 12:00	14%	4%	0.5%	88%
UA 1502 United Flight history →	SLC 08:00	ORD 12:20	14%	6%	0.6%	84%
UA 1382 United Flight history →	SLC 12:41	ORD 16:46	25%	10%	0.6%	76%
AA 3258 American Flight history →	SLC 13:35	ORD 17:59	27%	8%	0.8%	60%
DL 2413 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:10	ORD 21:20	28%	7%	0.5%	75%
AA 3072 American	SLC 11:40	ORD 15:56	28%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 1963 United Flight history →	SLC 16:09	ORD 20:21	30%	8%	0.6%	73%
AA 1873 American	SLC 16:54	ORD 21:23	33%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON