Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1203 SLC 07:45 → PDX 08:36 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 1244 SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1203 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:45	PDX 08:36	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
AS 3430 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 12:39	PDX 13:44	9%	4%	0.6%	90%
AS 3308 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 19:30	PDX 20:36	10%	6%	0.6%	86%
DL 1209 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:15	PDX 12:10	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
AS 446 Alaska	SLC 08:21	PDX 09:16	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1373 Delta Flight history →	SLC 21:45	PDX 22:38	12%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 1244 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:17	PDX 16:09	15%	4%	0.6%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON