Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4507 at 05:53 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 4507 SLC 05:53 → PHX 06:28 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1439 SLC 19:53 → PHX 20:51 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4507 Southwest	SLC 05:53	PHX 06:28	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3888 Southwest	SLC 09:24	PHX 10:13	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1447 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:05	PHX 08:44	8%	3%	0.4%	95%
AA 6327 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 07:13	PHX 07:57	9%	4%	0.6%	91%
AA 6422 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 12:17	PHX 13:02	11%	6%	0.5%	87%
AA 6462 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 15:11	PHX 16:14	12%	6%	0.5%	96%
DL 1431 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:20	PHX 12:01	12%	4%	0.4%	86%
DL 1496 Delta Flight history →	SLC 21:30	PHX 22:11	15%	5%	0.5%	88%
WN 1138 Southwest	SLC 15:09	PHX 15:58	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 1738 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:05	PHX 15:50	17%	5%	0.4%	85%
WN 1364 Southwest	SLC 17:29	PHX 18:18	20%	7%	0.6%	no record
F9 1439 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 19:53	PHX 20:51	21%	9%	1.0%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON