Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 402 at 17:51, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 402 Delta	SLC 17:51	RDU 00:00	13%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 55m Denver	DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269	8h 01m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SLC 00:06 → BOS 06:26DL 696	2h 14m Boston	BOS 08:40 → RDU 10:49DL 1106	8h 43m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:30 → MSP 11:58DL 2916	2h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 14:36 → RDU 18:12DL 2699	7h 42m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 14:28 → RDU 15:57DL 1550	6h 57m	97%	85%
United Details →	SLC 09:44 → IAD 15:47UA 1322	3h 13m Dulles	IAD 19:00 → RDU 20:13UA 1322	8h 29m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289	3h 01m Detroit	DTW 14:25 → RDU 16:08DL 1407	8h 08m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	2h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → RDU 23:59DL 2932	7h 59m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 17:40 → RDU 19:15DL 1097	9h 05m	100%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SLC 07:40 → SAN 08:50AS 3018 · flown by SkyWest	51m San Diego	SAN 09:41 → RDU 17:28AS 1670	7h 48m	74%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON