Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1969 at 07:24 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 1969 SLC 07:24 → SAN 08:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2026 SLC 16:29 → SAN 17:35 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1969 Southwest	SLC 07:24	SAN 08:35	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 3018 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 07:40	SAN 08:50	10%	4%	0.6%	93%
DL 1177 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:45	SAN 08:41	11%	2%	0.5%	93%
OO 3119 SkyWest	SLC 14:30	SAN 15:37	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 1202 Delta Flight history →	SLC 21:15	SAN 22:15	15%	4%	0.6%	83%
DL 1296 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:10	SAN 12:08	16%	4%	0.5%	84%
DL 1210 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:00	SAN 15:56	21%	5%	0.5%	76%
WN 2026 Southwest	SLC 16:29	SAN 17:35	24%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON