Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AS 3344 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–38%.

Safest bet that day AS 3344 SLC 06:14 → SEA 07:23 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 665 SLC 18:44 → SEA 20:00 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3344 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 06:14	SEA 07:23	8%	4%	0.6%	88%
DL 2874 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:50	SEA 09:02	12%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 2995 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:35	SEA 12:49	17%	4%	0.5%	89%
DL 2921 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:20	SEA 14:35	20%	4%	0.5%	85%
DL 2817 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:15	SEA 16:28	24%	5%	0.5%	77%
DL 871 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:20	SEA 18:33	26%	6%	0.5%	82%
DL 2016 Delta Flight history →	SLC 20:44	SEA 22:00	28%	7%	0.5%	46%
AS 1479 Alaska	SLC 10:01	SEA 11:02	28%	4%	1.0%	no record
AS 734 Alaska Flight history →	SLC 16:00	SEA 17:16	30%	8%	0.9%	67%
AS 665 Alaska Flight history →	SLC 18:44	SEA 20:00	38%	8%	1.0%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON