Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 113 at 08:14 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–18%.

Safest bet that day OO 113 SLC 08:14 → SJC 09:20 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1172 SLC 17:31 → SJC 18:31 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 113 SkyWest	SLC 08:14	SJC 09:20	6%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1254 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:40	SJC 12:35	12%	3%	0.4%	90%
DL 1260 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:10	SJC 16:04	18%	4%	0.4%	90%
DL 1172 Delta	SLC 17:31	SJC 18:31	18%	4%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON