Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3208 at 07:59 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 3208 SLC 07:59 → SMF 08:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1342 SLC 15:25 → SMF 16:07 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3208 Southwest	SLC 07:59	SMF 08:55	4%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1367 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:10	SMF 08:51	7%	2%	0.5%	93%
DL 1423 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:35	SMF 12:16	12%	3%	0.5%	86%
DL 1582 Delta Flight history →	SLC 21:30	SMF 22:10	13%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 1342 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:25	SMF 16:07	16%	4%	0.5%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON