Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1198 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 1198 SLC 08:00 → SNA 08:54 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 1277 SLC 15:15 → SNA 16:09 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1198 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:00	SNA 08:54	12%	3%	0.4%	90%
DL 1304 Delta Flight history →	SLC 21:05	SNA 22:00	15%	3%	0.4%	85%
DL 1835 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:00	SNA 12:00	22%	5%	0.4%	81%
DL 1277 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:15	SNA 16:09	26%	6%	0.4%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON