Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 2077 at 00:12, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2077 Delta Flight history →	SLC 00:12	TPA 06:03	11%	3%	4.4%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Denver	DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010	7h 59m	99%	85%
United Details →	SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest	3h 08m Denver	DEN 13:35 → TPA 19:13UA 2375	8h 43m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	SLC 09:45 → DTW 15:12DL 2236	3h 18m Detroit	DTW 18:30 → TPA 21:09DL 1355	9h 24m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	1h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 16:05 → TPA 20:19DL 2385	7h 09m	98%	81%
United Details →	SLC 09:44 → IAD 15:47UA 1322	2h 13m Dulles	IAD 18:00 → TPA 20:39UA 1140	8h 55m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 16:18 → TPA 17:53DL 1425	8h 53m	100%	76%
United Details →	SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366	1h 53m Houston	IAH 12:50 → TPA 16:12UA 1501	7h 27m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 17:16 → TPA 18:49DL 1594	8h 39m	100%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Frontier Details →	SLC 16:19 → DEN 18:01F9 4252	58m Denver	DEN 18:59 → TPA 00:43 +1F9 2746	6h 24m	70%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON