Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 3825 at 17:10, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 3825 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 17:10	TUL 20:40	13%	4%	0.7%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	3h 11m Denver	DEN 10:05 → TUL 13:00UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest	6h 45m	100%	86%
United Details →	SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest	3h 13m Denver	DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest	6h 59m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → TUL 16:44DL 2837	8h 44m	100%	81%
United Details →	SLC 08:00 → ORD 12:20UA 1502	3h 15m Chicago	ORD 15:35 → TUL 17:42UA 4482 · flown by GoJet	8h 42m	97%	74%
United Details →	SLC 13:05 → DEN 14:49UA 4720 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Denver	DEN 17:35 → TUL 20:25UA 1937	6h 20m	98%	72%
American Details →	SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214	1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:43 → TUL 12:02AA 2352	6h 02m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → TUL 22:18DL 2043	7h 43m	93%	71%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 16:47 → TUL 17:56DL 4837 · flown by Endeavor	8h 45m	99%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON