Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 3620 at 13:43, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 3620 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 13:43	XNA 17:36	10%	5%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214	3h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:42 → XNA 14:03AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	8h 03m	99%	86%
United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 56m Denver	DEN 09:50 → XNA 12:47UA 5267 · flown by SkyWest	6h 32m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 17:19 → XNA 18:14DL 2771	9h 04m	100%	83%
United Details →	SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest	3h 03m Denver	DEN 13:30 → XNA 16:25UA 5641 · flown by SkyWest	6h 55m	99%	82%
American Details →	SLC 07:01 → DFW 10:40AA 644	3h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:16 → XNA 15:37AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	7h 36m	96%	82%
American Details →	SLC 12:17 → PHX 13:02AA 6422 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Phoenix	PHX 15:49 → XNA 20:30AA 4086 · flown by Envoy	7h 13m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	SLC 11:00 → ATL 16:44DL 885	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 19:36 → XNA 20:32DL 1710	8h 32m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 22:57 → XNA 23:56DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest	9h 21m	98%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SLC 13:35 → ORD 17:59AA 3258	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 18:59 → XNA 20:52AA 3578 · flown by Envoy	6h 17m	73%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON