Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:45, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Atlanta on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 741 Delta Flight history →	SMF 07:00	ATL 14:35	8%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 904 Delta Flight history →	SMF 12:21	ATL 20:05	13%	5%	1.6%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342	3h 54m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:35 → ATL 05:14 +1DL 912	9h 14m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	1h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	7h 09m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229	1h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048	7h 07m	95%	82%
United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 55m Denver	DEN 10:17 → ATL 15:23UA 2806	7h 23m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:20 → SEA 19:25DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest	3h 42m Seattle	SEA 23:07 → ATL 07:03 +1DL 567	10h 43m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	SMF 18:55 → LAX 20:39DL 3712 · flown by SkyWest	2h 01m Los Angeles	LAX 22:40 → ATL 06:07 +1DL 899	8h 12m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	3h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875	8h 40m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	SMF 09:13 → LAX 10:48DL 3700 · flown by SkyWest	3h 27m Los Angeles	LAX 14:15 → ATL 21:59DL 715	9h 46m	98%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON