tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3894 at 05:31, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3894 Southwest SMF 05:31 AUS 11:04 4% 1% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 20m Denver DEN 09:42 → AUS 13:02UA 1026 6h 02m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 1h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 09:19 → AUS 13:17DL 1006 5h 47m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:09 → IAD 16:15UA 1742 1h 45m Dulles IAD 18:00 → AUS 20:35UA 2337 10h 26m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:27 → LAX 13:06DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest 2h 54m Los Angeles LAX 16:00 → AUS 20:59DL 622 7h 32m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285 1h 28m Denver DEN 13:44 → AUS 16:58UA 2270 6h 08m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → SMF 07:00 → ATL 14:35DL 741 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 17:20 → AUS 18:50DL 1491 9h 50m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 1h 16m Houston IAH 12:17 → AUS 13:24UA 1859 6h 09m 97% 79%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 12:07 → PDX 13:51AS 3003 · flown by SkyWest 3h 48m Portland PDX 17:39 → AUS 23:49AS 1370 9h 42m 100% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:04 → SFO 15:27UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 59m San Francisco SFO 16:26 → AUS 22:05UA 2150 6h 01m 71% 55%
AmericanDetails → SMF 11:46 → DFW 17:08AA 2081 1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:11 → AUS 19:18AA 1588 5h 32m 74% 41%
AmericanDetails → SMF 14:16 → DFW 19:48AA 2078 1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:51 → AUS 22:04AA 576 5h 48m 69% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON