Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Nashville on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3210 Southwest	SMF 11:11	BNA 17:23	14%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 13:02 → BNA 15:10DL 2101	6h 55m	96%	87%
United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 20m Denver	DEN 09:42 → BNA 13:25UA 355	6h 25m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	1h 13m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:25 → BNA 13:46DL 2214	6h 16m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:27 → LAX 13:06DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest	2h 10m Los Angeles	LAX 15:16 → BNA 21:21DL 858	7h 54m	98%	83%
United Details →	SMF 08:09 → IAD 16:15UA 1742	1h 27m Dulles	IAD 17:42 → BNA 18:47UA 2264	8h 38m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → BNA 22:58DL 3121	8h 37m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:34 → SEA 13:45DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest	3h 45m Seattle	SEA 17:30 → BNA 23:54DL 815	10h 20m	99%	76%
United Details →	SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863	1h 01m Houston	IAH 12:02 → BNA 14:12UA 1318	6h 57m	94%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON