Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3899 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 3899 SMF 07:50 → BUR 09:17 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1191 SMF 18:39 → BUR 20:08 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3899 Southwest	SMF 07:50	BUR 09:17	5%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 3900 Southwest	SMF 09:26	BUR 10:56	6%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 2115 Southwest	SMF 13:01	BUR 14:31	12%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 3904 Southwest	SMF 17:36	BUR 19:06	15%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 1191 Southwest	SMF 18:39	BUR 20:08	17%	7%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON