tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3907 Southwest SMF 21:44 BWI 05:41 13% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 24m Denver DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362 7h 17m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SMF 07:00 → ATL 14:35DL 741 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 17:50 → BWI 19:45DL 2928 9h 45m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285 1h 53m Denver DEN 14:09 → BWI 19:30UA 363 7h 40m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 59m Houston IAH 12:00 → BWI 16:14UA 1720 7h 59m 93% 79%
UnitedDetails → SMF 07:00 → ORD 13:10UA 2370 1h 34m Chicago ORD 14:44 → BWI 17:48UA 2737 7h 48m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → SMF 09:38 → ORD 15:47UA 1278 2h 23m Chicago ORD 18:10 → BWI 21:06UA 1557 8h 28m 95% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON