tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 31m Denver DEN 09:53 → CLT 15:17UA 2231 7h 17m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 1h 17m Minneapolis MSP 12:55 → CLT 16:27DL 2819 7h 12m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177 8h 37m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 1h 09m Houston IAH 12:10 → CLT 16:02UA 6197 · flown by Mesa 7h 47m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 2h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 10:30 → CLT 16:27DL 2070 7h 57m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 2h 00m Phoenix PHX 09:55 → CLT 17:10AA 665 8h 10m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → SMF 07:00 → ATL 14:35DL 741 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → CLT 18:24DL 3158 8h 24m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → SMF 07:00 → LAX 08:41AA 6265 · flown by SkyWest 2h 34m Los Angeles LAX 11:15 → CLT 19:07AA 2070 9h 07m 96% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SMF 11:46 → DFW 17:08AA 2081 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:05 → CLT 21:55AA 1703 7h 09m 69% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON