Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3909 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 3909 SMF 06:46 → DEN 10:18 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3666 SMF 11:25 → DEN 15:00 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3909 Southwest	SMF 06:46	DEN 10:18	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1889 United Flight history →	SMF 05:00	DEN 08:22	4%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 2285 United Flight history →	SMF 08:50	DEN 12:16	6%	2%	0.6%	98%
WN 3837 Southwest	SMF 10:26	DEN 13:58	7%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 1055 United	SMF 10:47	DEN 14:24	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1961 United Flight history →	SMF 13:00	DEN 16:26	12%	3%	0.5%	85%
UA 566 United Flight history →	SMF 16:19	DEN 19:45	13%	4%	0.6%	87%
WN 2160 Southwest	SMF 12:51	DEN 16:23	14%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 4359 Southwest	SMF 18:06	DEN 21:38	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
F9 3666 Frontier Flight history →	SMF 11:25	DEN 15:00	18%	4%	0.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON