Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2236 at 18:24, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2236 Southwest	SMF 18:24	EUG 19:51	20%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SMF 17:14 → SEA 19:10AS 2402 · flown by Horizon	3h 39m Seattle	SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon	6h 45m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	6h 17m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:20 → SEA 19:25DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest	2h 25m Seattle	SEA 21:50 → EUG 23:08DL 3855 · flown by SkyWest	5h 48m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	SMF 07:53 → SEA 10:05DL 4075 · flown by SkyWest	1h 25m Seattle	SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest	5h 05m	91%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SMF 14:04 → SFO 15:27UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest	1h 08m San Francisco	SFO 16:35 → EUG 18:17UA 502	4h 13m	75%	57%
Alaska Details →	SMF 19:17 → PDX 20:50AS 2335 · flown by Horizon	50m Portland	PDX 21:40 → EUG 22:28AS 2088 · flown by Horizon	3h 11m	57%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON