tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2075 United SMF 22:47 EWR 06:53 14% 4% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 18:47 → LAX 20:39UA 5628 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Los Angeles LAX 23:15 → EWR 07:30 +1UA 2303 9h 43m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 41m Denver DEN 10:03 → EWR 15:59UA 2381 7h 59m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 1h 32m Minneapolis MSP 13:10 → EWR 16:53DL 2866 7h 38m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 2h 45m Houston IAH 13:46 → EWR 18:30UA 1397 10h 15m 100% 71%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285 3h 19m Denver DEN 15:35 → EWR 21:29UA 1715 9h 39m 99% 69%
UnitedDetails → SMF 10:14 → LAX 12:06UA 6021 · flown by SkyWest 1h 33m Los Angeles LAX 13:39 → EWR 22:15UA 1950 9h 01m 94% 69%
DeltaDetails → SMF 07:00 → ATL 14:35DL 741 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498 10h 54m 99% 67%
UnitedDetails → SMF 13:00 → DEN 16:26UA 1961 1h 24m Denver DEN 17:50 → EWR 23:44UA 2613 7h 44m 92% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON