tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3915 at 18:24, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3915 Southwest SMF 18:24 GEG 20:21 17% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SMF 12:07 → PDX 13:51AS 3003 · flown by SkyWest 3h 37m Portland PDX 17:28 → GEG 18:38AS 452 6h 31m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367 2h 58m Salt Lake City SLC 15:25 → GEG 16:08DL 1503 6h 23m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 3h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452 6h 42m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 2h 53m Denver DEN 11:15 → GEG 12:37UA 295 7h 37m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:13 → LAX 10:48DL 3700 · flown by SkyWest 2h 12m Los Angeles LAX 13:00 → GEG 15:35DL 3794 · flown by SkyWest 6h 22m 95% 82%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 13:10 → BOI 15:35AS 2157 · flown by Horizon 3h 18m Boise BOI 18:53 → GEG 19:01AS 2030 · flown by Horizon 5h 51m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 2h 29m Phoenix PHX 10:24 → GEG 13:23AA 540 7h 23m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342 1h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 21:10 → GEG 21:52DL 1466 4h 52m 92% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SMF 19:17 → PDX 20:50AS 2335 · flown by Horizon 1h 00m Portland PDX 21:50 → GEG 22:59AS 1356 3h 42m 67% 57%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 17:14 → SEA 19:10AS 2402 · flown by Horizon 1h 13m Seattle SEA 20:23 → GEG 21:28AS 448 4h 14m 60% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON