tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 08:30, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3916 Southwest SMF 09:11 HNL 11:54 14% 3% 0.5% no record
AS 819 Alaska Flight history → SMF 08:25 HNL 10:54 28% 4% 0.8% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 14:12 → LAX 15:49DL 3812 · flown by SkyWest 2h 48m Los Angeles LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443 10h 10m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 3h 38m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 13h 13m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:05 → SFO 15:27UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 3h 33m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 10h 38m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 3h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 11h 49m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:14 → LAX 10:48DL 3700 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Los Angeles LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465 10h 29m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 2h 50m Phoenix PHX 10:45 → HNL 14:38AA 693 11h 38m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → SMF 10:15 → LAX 12:06UA 6021 · flown by SkyWest 1h 09m Los Angeles LAX 13:15 → HNL 16:17UA 1224 9h 02m 94% 76%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285 3h 44m Denver DEN 16:00 → HNL 19:13UA 1805 13h 23m 99% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON